'06 Pennant Race Preview, Eastern Division

With the '06 season coming down to the final four rounds, let's take a look at each division and what lies in store for the rest of the year. This season has turned out to be extremely competitive in every race, especially for the Central Division and Wild Card. Five teams could potentially be fighting it out for the Wild Card in the very last series of the year, which is going to make for some extremely contentious matches (and a lot of screaming and yelling). Here's how the Eastern Division is shaping up:

1st Place: Cleveland Thunder, 25-15

The Thunder started the season at 5-8 but have dominated their opponents after that, going 20-7 to take a strong lead in the division. Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran and A-Rod have torn up league pitching this year and are among the league leaders in homers and OPS. Beltran has hit an eye-popping 18 doubles. The team itself is hitting .261 and has stolen a respectable 22 bases (but with a +14 in SB-CS ratio). Of the team's stars, only Vladimir Guerrero has been having anything close to an off-year (.209 BA, .646 OPS). However, it's the pitching, not the hitting, that is going to easily carry the Thunder to a post-season berth. The pitching staff leads the Canyon League with a 3.61 ERA and is paced by starters C.C. Sabathia (6-2) and John Lackey (5-1). While the rest of the rotation has been decidedly average, and even disappointing in Dontrelle Willis's case (2-3, 5.40 ERA), the bullpen has been lights out. Free-agent draftee Scot Shields is making a case for the Cy Young award, with 10 saves in 12 attempts and a miniscule 0.87 ERA (with only 2 earned runs allowed all season). Justin Duscherer has done a very effective job in his role as primary setup man, and Oscar Villareal, Matt Capps and Brandon League have also pitched very effectively in different relief roles (all with ERAs below 3.30). Even Jose Valverde has struck out 22 batters in 13 innings.

Remaining series: Baltimore, San Diego, New York, Boston. None of these series should pose a serious challenge to the Thunder's stampede toward a Canyon League title. Baltimore's pitching staff can't match up to Cleveland's offensive onslaught, and San Diego is not in their league right now. New York and Boston will be lucky to win one game in their matchups with the Thunder.

Projected Finish: 1st place, 36-20.

2nd place, Baltimore Colt 45s, 21-15

In his pre-season preview of the Colt 45s, the Commish predicted a last place finish for them, based on woeful pitching and other issues left unadressed by GM Loren Nodolf. While they're not dominating the division, they're far from the cellar dwellers (more on the Blue Sox later). The Colt 45s fortunes might rest on their unplayed Round 10 series vs. California, which could leave them thinking about next season or could see them pushing the Thunder in a serious fight to the finish. Statistically, Baltimore is definitely middle of the pack at best, and their record seems to indicate that Nodolf has been getting by on smoke and mirrors. Only one Colt 45 hitter has reached double digits in home runs, and that player, Jim Thome, is now playing for the Houston Seraphs. Additionally, his replacement, James Loney, is very limited in ABs for the rest of the season, which leaves Shawn Green as the primary first baseman down the stretch; Clayton Kershaw may pay dividends in future seasons, but last I checked, A-ball pitchers don't get to play in the Canyon League. With Thome plying his trade in the Central Division, it will be up to Shortstop Derek Jeter (.364 BA, 1.064 OPS) to carry the team the rest of the way. Underrated CF David DeJesus has also been productive this year (.500 SLG), but it will be a challenge for him to finish as strongly. While nobody on the pitching staff will populate the Cy Young balloting, many have had effective seasons up to this point. Todd Jones has 7 saves in only 9 innings, and Juan Cruz is 4-1 in a middle relief role. The starters have all been very average but only Noah Lowry has been brutalized thus far (6.75 ERA, 37 hits in 23 IP); Lowry has to get on track for the team to have a chance to make the post-season.

Remaining series: California, Cleveland, Atlanta, Boston, New York. 20 games remain, and it looks like a roller coaster ride that will lead to a 10-10 finish. The loss of Thome coupled with the weak Baltimore pitching staff makes Baltimore a decidedly average team, but their hot start will still leave them with an over .500 finish. Loren's been a tough manager, though, and he's defied expectations before, so a miracle title is still a possibility.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, 31-25

3rd Place: New York Knights, 20-24

The Knights were a franchise in serious disarray when orphaned by ex-GM Rick Hand. The team was offered to several potential replacements, but the AARP status of so many New York players saw the suitors run away faster than the characters at the end of a Casper cartoon. Luckily, David R. Moxness was the perfect masochist for the job, but cleaning up the roster almost caused his hair to fall out ala Roger Maris. Between the waiver pool and trades, the Knights have sent 14 long-time players off to greener pastures, including star First Baseman David "Big Papi" Ortiz and CF Johnny Damon. While not a serious challenger to Cleveland and Baltimore, the Knights have played a respectable brand of baseball and have deflated the 'sweep hopes' of more than one opponent (Houston and Atlanta still have yet to recover). "Big Papi" paced the hitters with 16 homers during his final season in New York, and he's probably on his way to the league MVP. New everyday First Baseman Justin Morneau is hitting .425 since the trade, and he's going to make it easier for Knights fans to forget Ortiz. On the pitching side, top starters Brandon Webb, Chris Young and Dan Haren are 9-13, but their numbers are stronger than that record. Save leader Bob Wickman (7) was sent to San Diego in the "Big Papi" trade, and NY intends to use a closer by committee the rest of the way. The present may be somewhat gloomy, but the future is considerably brighter; unlike his predecessor, Moxness covets draft picks and currently has 10 waiting for him in the '07 draft. He also acquired young studs Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Young (the outfielder), and they'll make opponents miserable beginning next season.

Remaining series: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore. Nothing is going to be easy for the Knights down the stretch, and their depleted bullpen forces the starting rotation to bear the load. Emmert predicted the Knights would finish with more wins than the Zouaves, but a 3-9 finish won't get them there. The weak finish will give the Knights a solid position in next season's draft, and they'll finish with a much better record in 2007.

Projected finish: 3rd place, 23-33

4th Place, Boston Blue Sox, 15-29

My grandmother always threw out that line, "If you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all", but a) I have to write something about Boston, and b) she's dead, so I don't have to listen to her bitching anymore. January 22nd seemed like an ordinary day, but for the teams in the Central Division not managed by Shannon Somers, it is a day that will live in infamy forever. Boston was in a serious rebuilding mode, adding youngsters like Cameron Maybin and Alex Gordon to a roster that was very similar to the Atlanta Rebel franchises of the late 90s/early 21st century. Suddenly, the following trade was announced: Atlanta trades Chad Cordero (p) and their 2006 Free Agent pick (12th overall) to Boston for the Blue Sox 2006 Free Agent pick (3rd overall) and their 2006 1st round rookie pick (3rd overall)
Little did Boston GM Joe English realize at the time, but this trade would set off a trading frenzy that has never been seen before in the Canyon League. It is doubtful he was prepared for the angry tirade that the Commish would level at him, and the trade sparked an ugly month in terms of bad manners and rude e-mails that have thankfully abated. While the trade did fill one major need of the Blue Sox, it cost them a shot at young talent like Evan Longoria or Yovani Gallardo and free agent Matt Holliday. The Rebels were able to flip their stronger draft status into Eric Bedard, and in exchange, the Blue Sox received Chad Cordero and drafted Ryan Freel with the #12 FA pick. It was the Matt Mantei/Jake Peavy trade, 2006 version, with the Rebels exploiting a team's desperate need for a closer and getting much stronger for the effort.

As for the season, it's been another one of futility for the Blue Sox. Without going into painful detail, very little has worked for Boston, although Cordero has been very effective, with 9 saves and a 2.29 ERA. The problem is the rest of the pitching staff, which has more members with ERAs over 6.00 than under. Felix Hernandez has been brutally ineffective, with an eyepopping 8.51 ERA and 15.5 H/9IP. Underperforming stars like Chase Utley and Ryan Freel have pushed the Blue Sox to a worse record than they deserve, but this was never a team with a chance to contend in 2006. The future still looks bright in Boston with young studs King Felix, Philip Hughes and Cameron Maybin, among others, all ready to dominate for years to come.

Remaining series: SF, Baltimore, and Cleveland. Three tough opponents left to go, but for some reason, the Blue Sox should put up a good fight and will go 7-5. It's not nearly enough to salvage the season, but Joe English can head to next season with his dignity and a good future intact.

Projected Finish: 4th place, 22-34

Next Up: the Central Division. Will they figure out a way to make trades legal after the deadline? Will Emmert and Shannon fight to the death in Nelson's orchards next week? Stay Tuned!